Thursday, November 03, 2005

Bill Gross's latest missive is up at the PIMCO site... you can skip the first 30% of the article, unless you want to listen to another person give an unsolicited political opinion. However, the remainder of the article focuses on what we should be expecting from a Bernanke Fed, and how much longer the rate hikes will continue.
By the time 10-year and 2-year Treasuries reach parity, as is almost the case now, the economy is typically slowing and the Fed is at or near the end of its tightening cycle....

...The current upward cycle is now 27 months in duration and 230 basis points in magnitude, enough by historical standards to slow an economy or even produce a mild recession given increased leverage and the exogenous shock of energy prices. Typically an economic slowdown occurs 18 months after the beginning of an upward move in 5-year rates, and this cycle appears to be no exception with industrial production and service-related indicators having peaked nearly a year ago.
Bill goes on to predict a 2% or less GDP growth rate in 2006, with a good chance of an ease in Fed Funds by the end of the year.

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