Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Here's something I missed last week, but it certainly looks significant...
Against this historical backdrop, it is evident how cheap and, therefore, how attractive equities are today. Using consensus earnings figures for the present calendar year, the S&P 500 has an earnings yield of about 6%. Today's comparison stands in stark contrast to the historical record. Instead of earnings yields below bond yields [as they almost always have been for several decades], the S&P 500's earnings yield presently is actually higher than the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

The article goes on to note that the past 3 times that the earnings yield on the S&P have been above 10-year yields looks like this:
In March 2003, when earnings yields stood abnormally high compared to bond yields, the S&P 500 rallied by 35% during the succeeding 12 months. In mid-1995, a similar signal presaged a 26% rally, and before that in 1988 another such signal preceded a 31% rally during the succeeding 12 months.
That, combined with the massive amount of share buybacks that we can expect due to extra cash resulting from the Homeland Investment Act could be enough to get me in the bullish camp.

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