As you may know, Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley was calling for a fairly dramatic slowdown in Chinese growth in late 2005, which hasn't yet come to fruition. However, he isn't throwing in the towel just yet.

Because of China’s excess dependence on the over-extended American consumer, the Chinese export outlook faces far more immediate risks than those which eventually might come to pass on the investment side of the equation. Even so, the mounting overhang on China’s supply side -- underscored by an aggregate investment share that has now hit an astonishing 54% of GDP -- is increasingly worrisome.

He isn't wrong, he was just early...