Wednesday, October 26, 2005

$100 oil prices coming soon? Maybe, but Henry Groppe (one of the most respected and listened to energy analysts around) isn't buying it. His analysis shows that $40 - $60 per barrel should be the equlibrium price over the next few years. On the topic of peak oil production, he thinks we are right at the top.
...we are at the point where production is peaking and the price required to restrain consumption to match this future available supply is in the 50-60 dollar range on an annual average basis…This or next year might very well be the all time peak year in world liquid petroleum production.”
He views the transportation use of oil to be the biggest demand driver going forward, as the developing countries um, develop... and as alternate sources of energy for heating are marketed at these higher prices.

The biggest threat to continued demand?... worldwide recession, of course!

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